The 44th J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (January 12–15, 2026) delivered a clear signal: the industry is in repositioning mode. With $180 billion in annual pharma revenues at risk from patent expirations, companies are moving aggressively on M&A, infrastructure, and pipeline expansion. Here's what the data shows.
This analysis compiles announcements, deal data, and strategic updates from the conference, drawing on coverage from Fierce Biotech, Fierce Pharma, Reuters, Financial Times, and company presentations. The goal: give you a fact-based view of where the industry is headed.
Key Numbers from JPM26
The M&A Surge: Necessity, Not Choice
Biopharma M&A reached $116 billion in 2025—more than double the $52 billion recorded in 2024. This isn't exuberance; it's necessity. The patent cliff is real, and companies are buying rather than waiting.
Major M&A Activity (2025-2026)
Biopharma M&A reached $116B in 2025—more than double 2024's $52B
The Merck-Revolution Medicines discussions (reportedly $28–32B) would be the most expensive oncology deal since Pfizer-Seagen in 2023. The pattern is clear: late-stage oncology assets with novel mechanisms command premium valuations.
The Patent Cliff: $180 Billion at Risk
Approximately 12% of global pharmaceutical revenues face loss of exclusivity (LOE) between 2027 and 2028. This isn't a future problem—it's driving decisions now.
The Patent Cliff: $180B at Risk
~12% of global pharma revenues face LOE (Loss of Exclusivity) by 2028
For companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb and Novartis, the strategic imperative is clear: fill the pipeline or face revenue decline. This explains the bolt-on acquisition strategy that dominated JPM26 discussions.
Where the Money Is Going: Therapeutic Areas
Not all therapeutic areas are receiving equal attention. The data shows clear concentration in areas with strong clinical evidence, regulatory pathways, and commercial potential.
Therapeutic Area Activity at JPM26
Where capital, deals, and pipeline focus are converging
| Therapeutic Area | M&A Activity | Investor Interest | Pipeline Growth | Key Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oncology (Bispecifics/ADCs) | J&J $50B target by 2030; Merck/Revolution talks; CAR-T scaling | |||
| Obesity / GLP-1 | Lilly orforglipron approval ~March 2026; oral formulations gaining traction | |||
| Rare Disease | Alnylam $5.3B projection; Ultragenyx 2 approvals expected 2026 | |||
| Neuroscience | J&J $14.6B Intra-Cellular deal; Alzheimer's market access focus | |||
| Immunology | AbbVie Skyrizi/Rinvoq central; Sanofi immunology R&D >$1.9B by 2031 | |||
| Radiopharmaceuticals | Aktis $318M IPO; Novartis Florida RLT facility by 2029 |
Oncology remains central—J&J alone projects $50 billion in oncology revenue by 2030. But obesity/GLP-1 is the growth story, with Eli Lilly's orforglipron approval expected by March 2026 and pricing that could expand market access significantly (~$150/month for lower doses).
How Big Pharma Is Positioning
Company presentations at JPM26 revealed specific strategic priorities. The table below summarizes the positioning of major players:
How Big Pharma Is Positioning
Strategy updates and targets shared at JPM26
Biotech Funding: Signs of Recovery
After several quarters of decline, Q4 2025 saw a meaningful uptick in biotech funding. The $26.8 billion raised was the highest since Q4 2021.
Biotech Funding Recovery
Q4 2025 funding ($26.8B) was the highest since Q4 2021—signaling renewed investor confidence
Full-year 2025 funding totaled $70.7 billion—down only 6% from 2024's $75 billion. The data suggests cautious optimism rather than a full recovery. Investors remain selective, favoring companies with near-term catalysts and clear paths to revenue.
AI & Infrastructure: From Experiment to Core
The Lilly-Nvidia announcement—a $1 billion, five-year joint AI research lab—signals a shift. AI is no longer experimental; it's infrastructure.
AI & Tech Infrastructure
AI is no longer experimental—it's becoming core infrastructure for drug discovery and operations
Joint AI research lab using Vera Rubin chips for drug discovery
Shifts AI from tool to strategic infrastructure
LLM deployment for clinical and administrative workflows
Non-pharma tech entering healthcare AI
Molecular profiling and real-world evidence
Diagnostic-data integration for precision medicine
For companies without internal AI capabilities, the implications are clear: partner or fall behind. CROs and CDMOs that offer AI-enabled services (digital trial tools, RWD analytics, predictive enrollment) are now expected, not differentiated.
Manufacturing & Reshoring
Thermo Fisher's JPM26 presentation highlighted a trend gaining momentum: reshoring. Companies are moving production from Europe and Asia back to the U.S., driven by:
- Trade policy uncertainty — tariff risks are real
- Supply chain resilience — COVID exposed vulnerabilities
- Regulatory alignment — proximity to FDA for faster responses
- Government incentives — CHIPS-like programs for pharma
Novartis is building a fourth U.S. radioligand therapy facility in Florida, scheduled for 2029. For modalities with short half-lives (RLT, cell therapy), manufacturing geography is strategic.
Catalysts to Watch in 2026
The following events could significantly impact valuations and market dynamics over the next 12 months:
Key Catalysts to Watch in 2026
Events that could significantly move valuations and market dynamics
Orforglipron FDA approval
UX111 & DTX401 approvals
Asundexian Phase 3 readout
6 pivotal trial readouts
Carvykti profitability
Potential acquisition close
What This Means
JPM26 painted a picture of an industry in transition. The science is advancing (bispecifics, CAR-T, AI-enabled discovery), but so is the pressure (patent cliffs, pricing scrutiny, manufacturing complexity). The companies that succeed will be those that can execute—not just innovate.
For regulatory and operations teams, the implications are practical: expect faster timelines, more complex modalities, and increased scrutiny on execution. The organizations that can compress document preparation time without compromising quality will have a tangible advantage.
Sources
Conference Coverage
Market Analysis
Data compiled from publicly available sources as of January 2026. Deal values may be subject to milestones and regulatory approvals. Rumored deals are marked as such.